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Data Hub
Arming the center left with compelling research and analysis
PROGRAM OVERVIEW
The Moderate Power Project’s Data Hub is a central repository of the most compelling survey and quantitative research, electoral analysis, and policy data supporting the center left. It combines Third Way’s expert research and analysis with data-driven insights from pollsters, strategists, thinkers, and doers throughout the center-left ecosystem. We deliver timely, relevant information that operatives, journalists, commentators, elected officials, and staff can rely on as they go about their work. By equipping them with compelling facts, the Data Hub ensures that center-left viewpoints stand firmly at the heart of public discourse.
The complete set of Data Hub content can be found on our Substack.
Enter the Data HubWhat content does the Data Hub produce?
Weekly Articles: Quick-read, one-page breakdowns of data points that support the center left’s theory of the case that fall into one of three categories: voters, elections, and policy issues.
Data Dispatch: A monthly newsletter sharing salient, compelling data around a timely theme.
Original Research Products: Relevant and persuasive data-driven stories, often created in collaboration with distinguished research partners.
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Visit the Moderate Data Hub Substack for trends, analysis, and our complete repository of research.
CONTACT US
Reach out with any questions about the MPP Data Hub
Lucas Holtz | Senior Political Advisor
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MODERATES ARE THE MAJORITY MAKERS
The math doesn’t lie: cycle after cycle, moderates are the consistent deciders at the ballot box.
of Americans identify as moderate, compared to 38% who consider themselves conservative and 29% who consider themselves liberal. Democrats must secure a supermajority of moderate votes to win.
34%
of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents want the Democratic Party to become more ideologically moderate, up 11 points since 2021. Desire for a more liberal party has declined 5 points to 29%.
45%
candidates endorsed by the centrist New Democrat Coalition have flipped seats from red to blue since 2018, compared to zero seats flipped by far-left candidates.
50
is the minimum threshold of moderates necessary for Democrats to win the White House and the House.
60%
KEY INSIGHTS
2028ers: Don’t Get Fooled Again
If 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls follow the siren song of the left, they will steer their ships into the rocks. Democratic voters want their nominee to be in the Democratic mainstream. If they remain in the mainstream, they will have a fighting chance of winning not only the primary, but also most crucially, the general election. The path to the nomination and the White House begins with understanding five electoral realities:
• Democratic primary voters are mainstream, not extreme.
• Only 6% are socialists, and they are outliers.
• Democrats want an authentic, effective fighter.
• Electability > Ideology.
• 60% is the golden ratio in a general election.
The Truth About Democratic Primary Voters
This February, the Data Hub surveyed 1,400 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in a Democratic Presidential primary. The purpose was to understand who these people are, what they value, and what they want to see at the top of the ticket. This is the second such poll in a project that started in fall 2025, the first iteration of which can be found here.
Here’s what we gleaned:
• Democratic primary voters live lives that are similar to the average American. They also aren’t regularly contributing to the political narrative on social media.
• They characterize themselves primarily as liberal and moderate, with only a tiny slice calling themselves socialist.
• They want their candidate to be a fighter for working people who is not afraid to stand up to Trump, and they care more about winning than ideological purity.
How Young Men View Trump 2.0 After One Year
New Data Hub research finds that one year into his term, Trump and Vance are hemorrhaging support from a voter cohort he won in 2024: young men. Our research, shared first with Politico and quoted widely across national media outlets found:
- President Trump’s job approval is 34 points underwater among young men, with 32% approving and 66% disapproving of his performance in office.
- A paltry 26% of young men would back a J.D. Vance presidential run in the 2028 general election, with 55% opposing and 17% unsure.
- A 61% supermajority of young men say Trump is not fulfilling his campaign promise to put America first, including 25% of young Republican men and 64% of Independents.
- Sixty-five percent of young men say that they are either struggling to pay bills (27%) or are just making enough to pay bills (38%).
- Fifty-eight percent of young men believe that Trump has negatively impacted their finances, while just 23% say that he has had a positive impact.
- Half of young men blame Trump’s tariffs for higher grocery costs (49%), while a larger share blame private corporations that purchase real estate for high housing costs (65%).
Moderates Win Tough Seats
The moderate New Democrats have flipped 50 House seats from red to blue since 2018.
• Center-left DCCC Frontline Democrats, who ran in the most competitive House races in 2024, cumulatively overperformed Kamala Harris by 4.5 percentage points.
• 28 Frontliners and 26 non-incumbent NewDem candidates overperformed Harris in 2024.
• From 2018 to 2024, the more moderate a caucus was, the better their members performed in elections.
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