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Data Hub
Arming the center left with compelling research and analysis
PROGRAM OVERVIEW
The Moderate Power Project’s Data Hub is a central repository of the most compelling survey and quantitative research, electoral analysis, and policy data supporting the center left. It combines Third Way’s expert research and analysis with data-driven insights from pollsters, strategists, thinkers, and doers throughout the center-left ecosystem. We deliver timely, relevant information that operatives, journalists, commentators, elected officials, and staff can rely on as they go about their work. By equipping them with compelling facts, the Data Hub ensures that center-left viewpoints stand firmly at the heart of public discourse.
The complete set of Data Hub content can be found on Third Way’s website.
Enter the Data HubWhat content does the Data Hub produce?
Fact sheets: Quick-read, one-page breakdowns of data points that support the center left’s theory of the case that fall into one of three categories: voters, elections, and policy issues.
Data Dispatch: A monthly newsletter sharing salient, compelling data around a timely theme. Subscribe
Original research products: Relevant and persuasive data-driven stories, often created in collaboration with distinguished research partners.
DIVE INTO THE DATA
Visit the Data Hub page on Third Way’s website for our complete repository of research
CONTACT US
Reach out with any questions about the MPP Data Hub
Andy LaVigne | Director of Politics & Partnerships
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MODERATES ARE THE MAJORITY MAKERS
The math doesn’t lie: cycle after cycle, moderates are the consistent deciders at the ballot box.
of Americans identify as moderate, compared to 38% who consider themselves conservative and 29% who consider themselves liberal. Democrats must secure a supermajority of moderate votes to win.
34%
of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents want the Democratic Party to become more ideologically moderate, up 11 points since 2021. Desire for a more liberal party has declined 5 points to 29%.
45%
candidates endorsed by the centrist New Democrat Coalition have flipped seats from red to blue since 2018, compared to zero seats flipped by far-left candidates.
50
of Democratic presidential candidates since 1980 who secured 60% of moderate voter support have won the presidency.
100%
KEY INSIGHTS
Voters want a fighter to lead the center left out of the wilderness. But there is a raging debate about what that looks like. Is it an angry populist or something different? So MPP's Data Hub partnered with Worthy Strategy Group on public opinion research that paints a picture of how swing-state voters see the current political leadership, the state of the country, and what a true fighter does—and doesn’t—look like.
Registered voters in the seven swing states compiled videos and images showing they see America as “living in the ‘before’ of a disaster story.” Respondents saw current leaders as agents of destruction in a system that “rewards the wrong kind of strength and punishes the right kind.”
These voters want a fighter who is for them, fueled not by anger or fear but by love and compassion. Instead of an angry warrior, voters seek a firm parent—illustrated as a calm lion—who fiercely protects them from danger, is resilient under pressure, and delivers results fast. Their ideal fighter will rebuild the country and restore our faith in each other.
This November, Third Way and GBAO conducted an online survey of 2,000 registered voters—the third poll in our effort to separate the signal from the noise in the chaotic news environment of Trump 2.0. This research aims to understand which of Trump’s actions have been most salient with voters and which specific arguments were most effective in moving persuadable Trump supporters and Independents away from the President and his party.
There is a perception that because prices are high and rising, Donald Trump and congressional Republicans have failed to deliver on their economic promises. Voters are most concerned about core weekly and monthly budget items like health care and food costs. And they see a Trump Administration and congressional majority that is more concerned with giving money to the wealthy than helping normal families and workers.
- Voters think we are headed toward, or already in, a recession. When asked if America is facing the problem of a recession, 57% of voters said yes. This includes 56% of Independents and 58% of non-college voters, and even 40% of Trump voters say so.
- The top four performing messages focused on congressional Republican actions that raised health insurance premiums, spiked electricity bills, cut Medicaid, and cut food assistance in the name of giving tax cuts to billionaires that saddle the country with more debt.
- One of the most shocking findings is that cuts to food assistance programs was the single most salient issue of the 14 tested messages.
- Some things that rank high on awareness but low on salience now are the Epstein files, the East Wing renovations, and RFK Jr.’s job performance.
The Trump Debt Bomb
Third Way’s Economics team recently released qualitative and quantitative research findings about fiscal responsibility, highlighting the deep concerns voters have towards Trump’s catastrophic Big Beautiful Bill.
Among the key takeaways:
- By double digits, single issue voters in key Senate race states most want Congress to focus on the economy – 21% say so, with issues like immigration trailing at 9% or below.
- Voters believe that a recession is either coming soon (51%) or already happening (17%)
- Trump is -18 on job approval, -20 on Economy, and -21 on federal budget.
- Democrats need to capitalize on this issue more to build trust with voters; despite wasteful GOP spending, voters still trust them more to handle spending decisions (-5), fiscal responsibility (-1), and waste & inefficiency (-3).
MPP + Data Hub
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